描述岩土工程模型不确定性特征的贝叶斯方法

Asanymodelisonlyanabstractionoftherealworld，modeluncertaintyalwaysexists.Ingeotechnicalengineering，themodeluncertaintycouldbelarge.Lackofknowledgeaboutmodeluncertaintymayleadtounrealisticpredictions.Whenbackanalysisfromobservedperformances，modeluncertaintyisoftenmixedwithparameteruncertaintyandobservationaluncertainty.Henceitisgenerallydifficulttoisolateandcharacterizemodeluncertainty.Thisbookintroducesthestate-of-the-arttheoriesandmethodologiesforgeotechnicalmodeluncertaintycharacterizationbasedontheBayesiantheory，includingbothrigoroussolutionandapproximatebutpracticalsolutions，wheretheeffectsofparameteruncertaintyandobservationaluncertaintyonmodeluncertaintycharacterizationareappropriatelyaddressed.Thetheoriesandmethodologiesareillustratedindetailwithvariousgeotechnicalproblems.Thebookwillbeofgeneralinteresttoreadersintheprofessionandparticularlyusefulforthosespecializingingeotechnicalinverseanalysisandgeotechnicalreliability.