Over the Horizon：Time, Uncertainty, and the Rise of Great Powers
- 作者
- 出版社 Cornell University Press
- 出版时间 2017年9月
- ISBN 9781501707568
内容简介
Howdoestablishedpowersreacttogrowingcompetitors?TheUnitedStatescurrentlyfacesadilemmawithregardtoChinaandothersoverwhethertoembracecompetitionandthussubstantialpresent-daycostsorcollaboratewithitsrivalstogarnershort-termgainswhilelettingthembecomemorepowerful.ThisproblemlendsconsiderableurgencytothelessonstobelearnedfromOvertheHorizon.DavidM.EdelsteinanalyzespastrisingpowersinhissearchforanswersthatpointthewayforwardfortheUnitedStatesasitstrivestomaintaincontroloveritscompetitors.Edelsteinfocusesonthetimehorizonsofpoliticalleadersandtheeffectsoflong-termuncertaintyondecision-making.Henoteshowstateleaderstendtoprocrastinatewhendealingwithlong-termthreats,hopinginsteadtoprofitfromshort-termcooperation,andarereluctanttoactprecipitouslyinanuncertainenvironment.Totesthisnoveltheory,Edelsteinuseslessonslearnedfromhistory'sgreatpowers:latenineteenth-centuryGermany,theUnitedStatesattheturnofthetwentiethcentury,interwarGermany,andtheSovietUnionattheoriginsoftheColdWar.OvertheHorizondemonstratesthatcooperationbetweendecliningandrisingpowersismorecommonthanwemightthink,althoughdecliningstatesmaylaterregrethavinggivenupstartstimetomatureintotruethreats.
— END —