内容简介
费雪出了这本书后，利息理论似乎就无须再讨论了。好像亚里斯多德讲了三段论以后那样。人类的思想进步中，类似的转折点并不多。翻译上佳。
作者简介
IrvingFisher(1867-1947)IrvingFisherwasoneofAmerica'sgreatestmathematicaleconomistsandoneoftheclearesteconomicswritersofalltime.Hehadtheintellecttousemathematicsinvirtuallyallhistheoriesandthegoodsensetointroduceitonlyafterhehadclearlyexplainedthecentralprinciplesinwords.Andheexplainedverywell.Fisher'sTheoryofInterestiswrittensoclearlythatgraduateeconomicsstudents,whostillstudyittoday,oftenfindthattheycanread—andunderstand—halfthebookinonesitting.Withotherwritingsintechnicaleconomics,thisisunheardof.AlthoughhedamagedhisreputationbyinsistingthroughouttheGreatDepressionthatrecoverywasimminent,contemporaryeconomicmodelsofinterestandcapitalarebasedonFisherianprinciples.Similarly,monetarismisfoundedonFisher'sprinciplesofmoneyandprices.Fishercalledinterest"anindexofacommunity'spreferenceforadollarofpresent[income]overadollaroffutureincome."Helabeledhistheoryofinterestthe"impatienceandopportunity"theory.Interestrates,Fisherpostulated,resultfromtheinteractionoftwoforces:the"timepreference"peoplehaveforcapitalnow,andtheinvestmentopportunityprinciple(thatincomeinvestednowwillyieldgreaterincomeinthefuture).ThisreasoningsoundsverymuchlikeB鰄m-Bawerk's.Indeed,Fisher'sTheoryofInterestwasdedicatedto"thememoryofJohnRaeandofEugenvonB鰄m-Bawerk,wholaidthefoundationsuponwhichIhaveendeavoredtobuild."ButFisherobjectedtoB鰄m-Bawerk'sideathatroundaboutnessnecessarilyincreasesproduction.Instead,arguedFisher,atapositiveinterestrate,noonewouldeverchoosealongerperiodunlessitweremoreproductive.Soifwelookatprocessesselected,wedofindthatlongerperiodsaremoreproductive.But,heargued,thelengthoftheperioddoesnotinitselfcontributetoproductivity.Fisherdefinedcapitalasanyassetthatproducesaflowofincomeovertime.Aflowofincome,saidFisher,wasdistinctfromthestockofcapitalthatgeneratedit.Capitalandincomearelinkedbytheinterestrate.Specifically,wroteFisher,thevalueofcapitalisthepresentvalueoftheflowof(net)incomethattheassetgenerates.Thisstillishoweconomiststhinkaboutcapitalandincometoday.Fisheralsoopposedconventionalincometaxationandfavoredataxonconsumptiontoreplaceit.Hispositionfolloweddirectlyfromhiscapitaltheory.Whenpeoplesaveoutofcurrentincomeandthenusethesavingstoinvestincapitalgoodsthatyieldincomelater,notedFisher,theyarebeingtaxedontheincomethattheyusedtobuythecapitalgoodsandthenarebeingtaxedlaterontheincomethatthecapitalgenerates.This,hesaid,isdoubletaxationofsaving,andbiasesthetaxcodeagainstsavingandinfavorofconsumption.Fisher'sreasoningisstillusedbyeconomiststodayinmakingthecaseforconsumptiontaxes.Fisherwasapioneerintheconstructionanduseofpriceindexes.JamesTobinofYalehascalledFisher"thegreatestexpertofalltimeonindexnumbers."Indeed,from1923to1936,hisownIndexNumberInstitutecomputedpriceindexesfromallovertheworld.Fisherwasalsothefirsteconomisttodistinguishclearlybetweenrealandnominalinterestrates.Hepointedoutthattherealinterestrateisequaltothenominalinterestrate(theoneweobserve)minustheexpectedinflationrate.Ifthenominalinterestrateis12percent,forexample,butpeopleexpectinflationof7percent,thentherealinterestrateisonly5percent.Again,thisisstillthebasicunderstandingofmoderneconomists.Fisherlaidoutamoremodernquantitytheoryofmoney(i.e.,monetarism)thanhadbeendonebefore.HeformulatedhistheoryintermsoftheEquationofExchange,whichsaysthatMV=PT,whereMequalsthestockofmoney;Vequalsvelocity,orhowquicklymoneycirculatesinaneconomy;Pequalsthepricelevel;andTequalsthetotalvolumeoftransactions.Again,moderneconomistsstilldrawonthisequation,althoughtheyusuallyusetheversionMV=Py,whereystandsforrealincome.Theequationcanbeaverypowerfultoolforcheckingtheconsistencyofone'sthinkingabouttheeconomy.Indeed,ReaganeconomistBerylSprinkel,whowasTreasuryundersecretaryformonetaryaffairsin1981,usedthisequationtocriticizehiscolleagueDavidStockman'seconomicforecasts.SprinkelpointedoutthattheonlywayStockman'sassumptionsaboutthegrowthofincome,theinflationrate,andthegrowthofthemoneysupplycouldprovetruewouldbeifvelocityincreasedfasterthaniteverhadbefore.Asitturnedout,velocityactuallydeclined.IrvingFisherwasborninupstateNewYorkin1867.HegainedaneclecticeducationatYale,studyingscienceandphilosophy.Hepublishedpoetryandworksonastronomy,mechanics,andgeometry.Buthisgreatestconcentrationwasonmathematicsandeconomics,thelatterhavingnoacademicdepartmentatYale.Nonetheless,FisherearnedthefirstPh.D.ineconomicseverawardedbyYale.UpongraduationhestayedatYalefortherestofhiscareer.Athree-yearstrugglewithtuberculosisbeginningin1898leftFisherwithaprofoundinterestinhealthandhygiene.Hetookupvegetarianismandexerciseandwroteanationalbest-sellertitledHowtoLive:RulesforHealthfulLivingBasedonModernScience,whosevaluehedemonstratedbylivinguntilageeighty.HecampaignedforProhibition,peace,andeugenics.Hewasfounderorpresidentofnumerousassociationsandagencies,includingtheEconometricSocietyandtheAmericanEconomicAssociation.Hewasalsoasuccessfulinventor.In1925hisfirm,whichheldthepatentonhis"visiblecardindex"system,mergedwithitsmaincompetitortoformwhatlaterwasknownasRemingtonRandandthenSperryRand.Althoughthemergermadehimverywealthy,helostalargepartofhiswealthinthestockmarketcrashof1929.SelectedWorksTheNatureofCapitalandIncome.1906.ThePurchasingPowerofMoney.1911.ThePurchasingPowerofMoney,newandrevisededition,1922.TheRateofInterest.1907.TheTheoryofInterest.1930."DollarStabilization."EncyclopediaBritannica.vol.XXX,pp.852-853.1921.
