LeadingEconomicIndicators

DevelopedfiftyyearsagobytheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch,theanalyticmethodsofbusinesscyclesandeconomicindicatorsenableeconomiststoforecasteconomictrendsbyexaminingtherepetitivesequencesthatoccurinbusinesscycles.Themethodologyhasproventobeaninexpensiveandusefultoolthatisnowusedextensivelythroughouttheworld.Inrecentyears,however,significantnewdevelopmentshaveemergedinthefieldofbusinesscyclesandeconomicindicators.Thisvolumecontainstwenty-twoarticlesbyinternationalexpertswhoareworkingwithnewandinnovativeapproachestoindicatorresearch.Theycoveradvancesinthreebroadareasofresearch:theuseofnewdevelopmentsineconomictheoryandtime-seriesanalysistorationaliseexistingsystemsofindicators;moreappropriatemethodstoevaluatetheforecastingrecordsofleadingindicators,particularlyofturningpointprobability;andthedevelopmentofnewindicators.