Think Twice：Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition

Leadersinallfields-business,medicine,law,government-makecrucialdecisionseveryday.Theharshtruthisthattheymismanagemanyofthosechoices,eventhoughtheyhavetherightintentions.Theseblunderstakeahugetollonleaders,theirorganizations,andthepeopletheyserve.Whyisitsohardtomakesounddecisions?Wefallvictimtosimplifiedmentalroutinesthatpreventusfromcopingwiththecomplexrealitiesinherentinimportantjudgmentcalls.Yetthesecognitiveerrorsarepreventable.InThinkTwice,MichaelMauboussinshowsyouhowtorecognize-andavoid-commonmentalmissteps,including:-Misunderstandingcause-and-effectlinkages-Aggregatingmicro-levelbehaviortopredictmacro-levelbehavior-Notconsideringenoughalternativepossibilitiesinmakingadecision-RelyingtoomuchonexpertsSharingvividstoriesfrombusinessandbeyond,Mauboussinofferspowerfulrulesforavoidingeacherror.Andheexplainshowtoknowwhenit'stimetothinktwice-toquestionyourreasoningandadoptdecision-makingstrategiesthatarefarmoreeffective,eveniftheyseemcounterintuitive.Mastertheartofthinkingtwice,andyou'llstartspottingdangerousmentalerrors-inyourowndecisionsandinthoseofothers.Equippedwiththisawareness,you'llsoonbeginmakingsounderjudgmentcallsthatbenefit(ratherthanhurt)yourorganization.本书中莫布森研究了一个复杂问题：如何区分运气和技能因素。对于许多人类活动的短期表现，我们很难搞清楚到底应该用哪个因素来解释。但他说:“随着时间的推移，技能因素脱颖而出，而运气因素则互相抵消。”莫布森是雷格梅森基金公司（LeggMason）的首席投资策略分析师，他对华尔街的投资活动进行过详细的探讨。他说，投资不像下棋，因为一个国际象棋高手几乎每次都能击败新手；同时，投资也不像玩老虎机，因为玩那个东西不需要什么技能。相较而言，投资更像是玩扑克牌，一个扑克牌高手如果拿到一副臭牌也可能会输。莫布森提供了检验某个活动是否涉及技能因素的简便方法：看你能不能故意输掉比赛。国际象棋特级大师几乎肯定能摆烂输给任何菜鸟，但玩老虎机时你却无法知道怎样做才能百分之百地输钱。一个扑克牌高手可以耍些花招输给笔者这样的业余选手，可是如果某一局他拿了副绝好的牌，那或许他就连想输都难了。