Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Fall 2012

BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity(BPEA)providesacademicandbusinesseconomists,governmentofficials,andmembersofthefinancialandbusinesscommunitieswithtimelyresearchoncurrenteconomicissues.Contents:PoliticalPolarizationandtheDynamicsofPoliticalLanguage:Evidencefrom130YearsofPartisanSpeechJacobJensen(ColumbiaUniversity),EthanKaplan(UniversityofMaryland),SureshNaidu(ColumbiaUniversity),andLaurenceWilse-Samson(ColumbiaUniversity)TheInsandOutsofForecastingUnemployment:UsingLaborForceFlowstoForecasttheLaborMarketRegisBarnichon(CentredeRecercaenEconomiaInternacional,Barcelona)andChristopherJ.Nekarda(BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem)WinningtheWar:PovertyfromtheGreatSocietytotheGreatRecessionBruceD.Meyer(UniversityofChicago)andJamesX.Sullivan(UniversityofNotreDame)TheReversaloftheEmployment-PopulationRatiointhe2000s:FactsandExplanationsRobertA.Moffitt(JohnsHopkinsUniversity)WhatHaveTheyBeenThinking?HomebuyerBehaviorinHotandColdMarketsKarlE.Case(WellesleyCollege),RobertJ.Shiller(YaleUniversity),andAnneK.Thompson(McGraw-HillConstruction)CapitalControls:GatesVersusWallsMichaelW.Klein(TuftsUniversity),