The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable

Oneoftheprimaryqualitiesofgoodcreativethinkingisanintellectualfreedomtothinkoutsideofthebox.Goodcreativethinkersresistorthodoxideas,takenewlinesofenquiry,andgenerallycomeatproblemsfromthekindsofanglesalmostnooneelsecould.And,whatismore,whentheideasofcreativethinkersareconvincing,theycanreshapeanentiretopic,andchangetheorthodoxyforgood.NassimNicholasTaleb’s2007bestsellerTheBlackSwan:TheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableispreciselysuchabook:anentertaining,polemical,creativeattackonhowpeopleingeneral,andeconomicexpertsinparticularviewthepossibilityofcatastrophicevents.Talebwriteswithrarecreativeverveforsomeonewhoisalsoanexpertinmathematics,finance,andepistemology(thephilosophyofknowledge),andhemartialsallhisskillstoturnstandardreasoninginsideout.Hiscentralpointisthatfarfrombeingunimportant,extremelyrareeventsarefrequentlythemostimportantonesofall:itishighlyimprobable,buthighlyconsequentialoccurrences–whathecallsBlackSwans–thathaveshapedhistorymost.Asaresult,Talebconcludes,improbabilityisnotareasontoactasifapossibleeventdoesnotmatter.Rather,itshouldinspiretheoppositereaction.