Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles (Wiley Finance)

作者 Michael P.著Philip A. Klein著
出版社 Wiley
出版时间 1994年2月第1版
ISBN 9780471845447
定价 605.10

内容简介

Gaintheknowledgeandskillsthatcanhelpyouexploitinstability.ForecastingFinancialandEconomicCyclesNobookcanhelpyouconstructfoolproofforecastingsystemsthatwillensureyou'llaccuratelypredicteconomicturningpointseverytime.ButwithNiemiraandKlein'sForecastingFinancialandEconomicCyclesonhand,you'llbeabletosignificantlystrengthenyourabilitytomeasure,monitor,andforecastimportantfluctuations.Parthistory,itprovidesyouwithessentialbackgroundmaterialonthecharacteristicsandcausesofeconomicvolatility.Itoffersaccessiblecoverageoftheclassicalbusinesscycle,thefivebasictypesofeconomiccyclesasdeterminedbyleadingeconomists,andevolvingideasontheforcesdrivinginstability--rangingfromsimpleunicausaltheories,morecomplexKeynesiantheory,tonewclassicalmacroeconomics.Inaddition,itsconcisereviewofAmerica'seconomicpasthighlightsthelessonsthatcanbelearnedfromthevariouscyclesexperiencedsinceshortlybeforeWorldWarII.Parthandbook,ForecastingFinancialandEconomicCyclespresentsthefullspectrumofstatisticaltechniquesusedtomeasurecycles,trends,seasonalpatterns,andothervitalchanges,offeringyoustep-by-stepguidanceonapplyingaspecificmethodanddetailingitsusesandlimitations.Itgoesontoshowhowyoucanadaptparticulartechniquestoassess,track,andpredict:*Industrycycles--includinganobjective,tailor-madeforecastingtool*Regionalbusinesscycles--includingasurveyofregionalindicators*Internationalbusinesscycles--withaninternationalbusinesscyclechronology*Inflationcycles--plus"12little-knownfacts"aboutthiscomplexcycle*Financialcycles--coveringcredit,monetary,andinterestratecycles*Stockmarketcycles--withadviceonachievingmoredisciplinedtradingBasedonoutstandingscholarshipandyearsofpracticalexperience,ForecastingFinancialandEconomicCycleswillserveasaninvaluabletoolforpractitionerslikeyouwhosedecision-making--andprofitmargin--dependonaccuratelyassessingtoday'softenuncertaineconomicclimate."ForecastingFinancialandEconomicCyclesprovidesalivelysurveyofthemanywaysthatcyclicaleconomicactivityhasbeendissectedandanalyzed.Withthisbook,anastutereadermayevenbeabletoanticipatethenextcyclicalturn."--SamuelD.KahanChiefEconomistFujiSecurities,Inc."Thedefinitivebookonthemostimportantandenduringfeatureofanoftenmist-boundeconomiclandscape:thebusinesscycle."--AlfredL.Malabre,Jr.EconomicsEditorTheWallStreetJournal"NiemiraandKleincoverboththetheoryofeconomiccyclesandmethodsforforecastingthem.Theyprovideoneofthemostcomprehensiveandcurrentreviewsofacademicstudiesofeconomiccyclestobefoundanywhere."--AnthonyF.HerbstProfessorofFinanceTheUniversityofTexasatElPaso"Thisbooksucceedsasacomprehensive,balanced,andaccessibletreatmentoffluctuationsineconomicandfinancialactivity.Itshouldproveusefultoallthoseinindustryandfinancewhowishtounderstandandanalyzethetrendsandchangesinthemoderndynamiceconomy."--VictorZarnowitzProfessorEmeritusofEconomicsandFinanceUniversityofChicago

作者简介

sMICHAELP.NIEMIRAisVicePresidentandEconomistatMitsubishiBankinNewYork.Previously,heworkedasaneconomistatPaineWebber,ChemicalBank,andMerrillLynch.HeregularlywritesforCycles,themagazineoftheFoundationfortheStudyofCycles.HisearlierworkonindustrycyclesearnedhimtheNationalAssociationofBusinessEconomists'A.G.Abramsonawardforan"outstandingcontributiontotheprofessionalliteratureinthefieldofbusinesseconomics."PHILIPA.KLEINisProfessorofEconomicsatPennsylvaniaStateUniversityandisanAssociateEditoroftheInternationalJournalofForecasting.HehasconsultedonbusinesscycleindicatorsforOECD,theEEC,andtheWorldBank.HehaswrittenwidelyonbusinesscyclesandhasworkedformanyyearswithGeoffreyH.Moore.HeisaResearchAssociateattheCenterforInternationalBusinessCycleResearchatColumbiaUniversity.

丛书

Wiley Finance

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