书目

The Black Swan[黑天鹅:如何应对不可预知的未来]

内容简介

Intheauthor'spointofview,ablackswanisanimprobableeventwiththreeprincipalcharacteristics-Itisunpredictable;itcarriesamassiveimpact;and,afterthefact,weconcoctanexplanationthatmakesitappearlessrandom,andmorepredictable,thanitwas.Whydowenotacknowledgethephenomenonofblackswansuntilaftertheyoccur?Partoftheanswer,accordingtoTaleb,isthathumansarehardwiredtolearnspecificswhentheyshouldbefocusedongeneralities.Weconcentrateonthingswealreadyknowandtimeandtimeagainfailtotakeintoconsiderationwhatwedon'tknow.Weare,therefore,unabletotrulyestimateopportunities,toovulnerabletotheimpulsetosimplify,narrate,andcategorize,andnotopenenoughtorewardingthosewhocanimaginethe'impossible'.

作者简介

NassimNicholasTalebisaLebaneseAmericanessayistwhoseworkfocusesonproblemsofrandomnessandprobability.His2007bookTheBlackSwanwasdescribedinareviewbySundayTimesasoneofthetwelvemostinfluentialbookssinceWorldWarII.Heisabestsellingauthorandhasbeenaprofessoratseveraluniversities,currentlyatPolytechnicInstituteofNewYorkUniversityandOxfordUniversity.Heisalsoapractitionerofmathematicalfinance.Talebhasbeenahedgefundmanager,aWallStreettrader,andiscurrentlyascientificadviseratUniversaInvestmentsandtheInternationalMonetaryFund.Hecriticizedtheriskmanagementmethodsusedbythefinanceindustryandwarnedaboutfinancialcrises,subsequentlymakingafortuneoutofthelate-2000sfinancialcrisis.Headvocateswhathecallsa"blackswanrobust"society,meaningasocietythatcanwithstanddifficult-to-predictevents.Hefavors"stochastictinkering"asamethodofscientificdiscovery,bywhichhemeansexperimentationandfact-collectinginsteadoftop-downdirectedresearch.

目录

—  END  —