内容简介
Intheauthor'spointofview,ablackswanisanimprobableeventwiththreeprincipalcharacteristics-Itisunpredictable;itcarriesamassiveimpact;and,afterthefact,weconcoctanexplanationthatmakesitappearlessrandom,andmorepredictable,thanitwas.Whydowenotacknowledgethephenomenonofblackswansuntilaftertheyoccur?Partoftheanswer,accordingtoTaleb,isthathumansarehardwiredtolearnspecificswhentheyshouldbefocusedongeneralities.Weconcentrateonthingswealreadyknowandtimeandtimeagainfailtotakeintoconsiderationwhatwedon'tknow.Weare,therefore,unabletotrulyestimateopportunities,toovulnerabletotheimpulsetosimplify,narrate,andcategorize,andnotopenenoughtorewardingthosewhocanimaginethe'impossible'.
作者简介
NassimNicholasTalebisaLebaneseAmericanessayistwhoseworkfocusesonproblemsofrandomnessandprobability.His2007bookTheBlackSwanwasdescribedinareviewbySundayTimesasoneofthetwelvemostinfluentialbookssinceWorldWarII.Heisabestsellingauthorandhasbeenaprofessoratseveraluniversities,currentlyatPolytechnicInstituteofNewYorkUniversityandOxfordUniversity.Heisalsoapractitionerofmathematicalfinance.Talebhasbeenahedgefundmanager,aWallStreettrader,andiscurrentlyascientificadviseratUniversaInvestmentsandtheInternationalMonetaryFund.Hecriticizedtheriskmanagementmethodsusedbythefinanceindustryandwarnedaboutfinancialcrises,subsequentlymakingafortuneoutofthelate-2000sfinancialcrisis.Headvocateswhathecallsa"blackswanrobust"society,meaningasocietythatcanwithstanddifficult-to-predictevents.Hefavors"stochastictinkering"asamethodofscientificdiscovery,bywhichhemeansexperimentationandfact-collectinginsteadoftop-downdirectedresearch.