Inevitable Illusions: How Mistakes of Reason Rule Our Minds 不可避免的错觉：理性的错误如何控制我们的思维

Minimally,howmanypeoplemusttherebeinaroomtoallowabetterthan50percentchancethattwoofthemwillhavethesamebirthday?Youranswermayrevealthepresenceofacognitiveillusion-amentaltunnelthatconfoundsrationalthought.Piattelli-Palmarini,directoroftheCognitiveScienceInstituteinMilanandaresearchassociateatMIT,offersfascinatingexamplesofsuchillusionstoshowhowspontaneous,intuitivejudgmentcanleadusastray.Ourfailuretograspbasicprobability,forexample,canleadtocatastrophicdecisionsinlawandmedicine.Theauthordescribesthesevendeadlymentalsinsandsuggestswaystoovercomebiasand"mentalsloth."Thisthoughtful,oftendisturbingbookwillchallengeeventhosereaderswithafirmgroundinginprobabilityandstatistics.Foracademicandlargepubliclibraries.LaurieBartolini,LegislativeResearch,Springfield,Ill.Copyright1994ReedBusinessInformation,Inc.