内容简介
Minimally,howmanypeoplemusttherebeinaroomtoallowabetterthan50percentchancethattwoofthemwillhavethesamebirthday?Youranswermayrevealthepresenceofacognitiveillusion-amentaltunnelthatconfoundsrationalthought.Piattelli-Palmarini,directoroftheCognitiveScienceInstituteinMilanandaresearchassociateatMIT,offersfascinatingexamplesofsuchillusionstoshowhowspontaneous,intuitivejudgmentcanleadusastray.Ourfailuretograspbasicprobability,forexample,canleadtocatastrophicdecisionsinlawandmedicine.Theauthordescribesthesevendeadlymentalsinsandsuggestswaystoovercomebiasand"mentalsloth."Thisthoughtful,oftendisturbingbookwillchallengeeventhosereaderswithafirmgroundinginprobabilityandstatistics.Foracademicandlargepubliclibraries.LaurieBartolini,LegislativeResearch,Springfield,Ill.Copyright1994ReedBusinessInformation,Inc.