MathematicalEpidemiologyofInfectiousDiseases:ModelBuilding,AnalysisandInterpretation

MathematicalEpidemiologyofInfectiousDiseasesModelBuilding,AnalysisandInterpretationO.DiekmannUniversityofUtrecht,TheNetherlandsJ.A.P.HeesterbeekCentreforBiometryWageningen,TheNetherlandsThemathematicalmodellingofepidemicsinpopulationsisavastandimportantareaofstudy.Itisabouttranslatingbiologicalassumptionsintomathematics,aboutmathematicalanalysisaidedbyinterpretationandaboutobtaininginsightintoepidemicphenomenawhentranslatingmathematicalresultsbackintopopulationbiology.Modelassumptionsareformulatedintermsof,usuallystochastic,behaviourofindividualsandthentheresultingphenomena,atthepopulationlevel,areunravelled.Conceptualclarityisattained,assumptionsarestatedclearly,hiddenworkinghypothesesareattainedandmechanisticlinksbetweendifferentobservablesareexposed.Features:*Modelconstruction,analysisandinterpretationreceivedetailedattention*Uniquelycoversbothdeterministicandstochasticviewpoints*Examplesofapplicationsgiventhroughout*Extensivecoverageofthelatestresearchintothemathematicalmodellingofepidemicsofinfectiousdiseases*ProvidesasolidfoundationofmodellingskillsThereaderwilllearntotranslate,model,analyseandinterpret,withthehelpofthenumerousexercises.Inliterallyworkingthroughthistext,thereaderacquiresmodellingskillsthatarealsovaluableoutsideofepidemiology,certainlywithinpopulationdynamics,butevenbeyondthat.Inaddition,thereaderreceivestraininginmathematicalargumentation.Thetextisaimedatappliedmathematicianswithaninterestinpopulationbiologyandepidemiology,attheoreticalbiologistsandepidemiologists.Previousexposuretoepidemicconceptsisnotrequired,asallbackgroundinformationisgiven.Thebookisprimarilyaimedatself-studyandideallysuitedforsmalldiscussiongroups,orforuseasacoursetext.