20/20 Foresight: Critical Success Strategies for New Leaders at All Levels

Inthemidstofachangingeconomy,mostexecutivescontinuetouseastrategytoolkitdesignedforyesterday'smorestablemarketplace.Asaresult,strategiesemergethatneithermanagetherisksnortakeadvantageoftheopportunitiesthatariseinhighlyuncertaintimes.Now,McKinsey&CompanyconsultantHughCourtneyarguesthatmanagersmustmovebeyondtheoutdated"all-or-nothing"viewofstrategyinwhichfutureeventsareeithercertainoruncertain.Instead,hesuggestsasimple-yetpowerful-alternative:Understandthelevelofuncertaintyyouarefacinginagivensituation,andyouwillmakebetter,moreinformedstrategicchoices.Basedonaninternationalreviewofthekeystrategyproblemsfacedbyoveronehundredleadingcompanies,Courtneyrevealshowexecutivescandevelop20/20foresight--aviewofthefuturethatseparateswhatcanbeknownfromwhatcan't.Whileexecutiveswith20/20foresightcanrarelydevelopperfectforecastsofthefuture,saysCourtney,theycanisolatethe"residualuncertainty"theyfaceandusethisinsighttocreatecompetitiveadvantageintoday'sturbulentmarkets.Unveilingarevolutionaryframeworkfordiagnosingtowhichofthefourlevelsofresidualuncertaintyaspecificstrategychoicecorresponds,20/20Foresightshowshowreaderscanleveragethisknowledgetoanswerthreekeystrategicquestions:1)Shapeoradapttouncertainty?2)Makestrategiccommitmentsnoworlater?and3)Followafocusedordiversifiedstrategy?20/20Foresightalso:·showsstrategistshowtotailoreveryaspectofthedecision-makingprocess-fromformulationtoimplementation-tothelevelofuncertaintyfaced,·describesthestrategic-planningprocessesreaderscanusetomonitor,update,andrevisestrategiesasnecessaryinvolatilemarkets,and·includesatoolkitforidentifying,developing,andtestingnewstrategyoptions-completewithguidelinesforapplyingtherighttooltotherightsituationattherighttime.Acomprehensiveapproachtostrategydevelopmentunderallpossiblelevelsofuncertaintyandacrossallkindsofindustries,thisistheessentialguideformakingtoughstrategicchoicesinachangingworld.HughCourtneyisanAssociatePrincipalwiththeGlobalStrategyPracticeatMcKinsey&CompanyinWashingtonD.C.