Fooled by Randomness

Nowinastrikingnewhardcoveredition,FooledbyRandomnessistheword-of-mouthsensationthatwillchangethewayyouthinkaboutbusinessandtheworld.NassimNicholasTaleb–veterantrader,renownedriskexpert,polymathicscholar,eruditeraconteur,andNewYorkTimesbestsellingauthorofTheBlackSwan–haswrittenamodernclassicthatturnsonitsheadwhatwebelieveaboutluckandskill.Thisbookisaboutluck–ormoreprecisely,abouthowweperceiveanddealwithluckinlifeandbusiness.Setagainstthebackdropofthemostconspicuousforuminwhichluckismistakenforskill–theworldoftrading–FooledbyRandomnessprovidescaptivatinginsightintooneoftheleastunderstoodfactorsinallourlives.Writinginanentertainingnarrativestyle,theauthortacklesmajorintellectualissuesrelatedtotheunderestimationoftheinfluenceofhappenstanceonourlives.Thebookispopulatedwithanarrayofcharacters,someofwhomhavegrasped,intheirownway,thesignificanceofchance:thebaseballlegendYogiBerra;thephilosopherofknowledgeKarlPopper;theancientworld’swisestman,Solon;themodernfinancierGeorgeSoros;andtheGreekvoyagerOdysseus.WealsomeetthefictionalNero,whoseemstounderstandtheroleofrandomnessinhisprofessionallifebutfallsvictimtohisownsuperstitiousfoolishness.However,themostrecognizablecharacterofallremainsunnamed–theluckyfoolwhohappenstobeintherightplaceattherighttime–heembodiesthe“survivaloftheleastfit.”Suchindividualsattractdevotedfollowerswhobelieveintheirguru’sinsightsandmethods.Butnoonecanreplicatewhatisobtainedbychance.Arewecapableofdistinguishingthefortunatecharlatanfromthegenuinevisionary?Mustwealwaystrytouncovernonexistentmessagesinrandomevents?ItmaybeimpossibletoguardourselvesagainstthevagariesofthegoddessFortuna,butafterreadingFooledbyRandomnesswecanbealittlebetterprepared.