The Signal and the Noise：Why Most Predictions Fail but Some Don't

Everytimewechoosearoutetowork,decidewhethertogoonaseconddate,orsetasidemoneyforarainyday,wearemakingapredictionaboutthefuture.Yetfromtheglobalfinancialcrisisto9/11totheFukushimadisaster,weoftenfailtoforeseehugelysignificantevents.InTheSignalandtheNoise,theNewYorkTimes'politicalforecasterandstatisticsguruNateSilverexplorestheartofprediction,revealinghowwecanallbuildabettercrystalball.Inhisquesttodistinguishthetruesignalfromauniverseofnoisydata,Silvervisitshundredsofexpertforecasters,infieldsrangingfromthestockmarkettothepokertable,fromearthquakestoterrorism.Whatliesbehindtheirsuccess?Andwhydosomanypredictionsstillfail?Byanalysingtherareprescientforecasts,andapplyingamorequantitativelenstoeverydaylife,Silverdistilstheessentiallessonsofprediction.Weliveinanincreasinglydata-drivenworld,butitisharderthanevertodetectthetruepatternsamidthenoiseofinformation.Inthisdazzlinginsider'stouroftheworldofforecasting,Silverrevealshowwecanalldevelopbetterforesightinoureverydaylives.