The Black Swan：The Impact of the Highly Imprbable

Ablackswanisahighlyimprobableeventwiththreeprincipalcharacteristics:Itisunpredictable;itcarriesamassiveimpact;and,afterthefact,weconcoctanexplanationthatmakesitappearlessrandom,andmorepredictable,thanitwas.TheastonishingsuccessofGooglewasablackswan;sowas9/11.ForNassimNicholasTaleb,blackswansunderliealmosteverythingaboutourworld,fromtheriseofreligionstoeventsinourownpersonallives.Whydowenotacknowledgethephenomenonofblackswansuntilaftertheyoccur?Partoftheanswer,accordingtoTaleb,isthathumansarehardwiredtolearnspecificswhentheyshouldbefocusedongeneralities.Weconcentrateonthingswealreadyknowandtimeandtimeagainfailtotakeintoconsiderationwhatwedon’tknow.Weare,therefore,unabletotrulyestimateopportunities,toovulnerabletotheimpulsetosimplify,narrate,andcategorize,andnotopenenoughtorewardingthosewhocanimaginethe“impossible.”Foryears,Talebhasstudiedhowwefoolourselvesintothinkingweknowmorethanweactuallydo.Werestrictourthinkingtotheirrelevantandinconsequential,whilelargeeventscontinuetosurpriseusandshapeourworld.Now,inthisrevelatorybook,Talebexplainseverythingweknowaboutwhatwedon’tknow.Heofferssurprisinglysimpletricksfordealingwithblackswansandbenefitingfromthem.Elegant,startling,anduniversalinitsapplicationsTheBlackSwanwillchangethewayyoulookattheworld.Talebisavastlyentertainingwriter,withwit,irreverence,andunusualstoriestotell.Hehasapolymathiccommandofsubjectsrangingfromcognitivesciencetobusinesstoprobabilitytheory.TheBlackSwanisalandmarkbook–itselfablackswan.