书目

The Black Swan:The Impact of the Highly Imprbable

  • 作者 Nassim Nicholas Taleb(纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布) 著
  • 出版社 Oversea Publishing House
  • 出版时间 2007年4月 第1版
  • ISBN 9781400063512
  • 定价 224.20

内容简介

Ablackswanisahighlyimprobableeventwiththreeprincipalcharacteristics:Itisunpredictable;itcarriesamassiveimpact;and,afterthefact,weconcoctanexplanationthatmakesitappearlessrandom,andmorepredictable,thanitwas.TheastonishingsuccessofGooglewasablackswan;sowas9/11.ForNassimNicholasTaleb,blackswansunderliealmosteverythingaboutourworld,fromtheriseofreligionstoeventsinourownpersonallives.Whydowenotacknowledgethephenomenonofblackswansuntilaftertheyoccur?Partoftheanswer,accordingtoTaleb,isthathumansarehardwiredtolearnspecificswhentheyshouldbefocusedongeneralities.Weconcentrateonthingswealreadyknowandtimeandtimeagainfailtotakeintoconsiderationwhatwedon’tknow.Weare,therefore,unabletotrulyestimateopportunities,toovulnerabletotheimpulsetosimplify,narrate,andcategorize,andnotopenenoughtorewardingthosewhocanimaginethe“impossible.”Foryears,Talebhasstudiedhowwefoolourselvesintothinkingweknowmorethanweactuallydo.Werestrictourthinkingtotheirrelevantandinconsequential,whilelargeeventscontinuetosurpriseusandshapeourworld.Now,inthisrevelatorybook,Talebexplainseverythingweknowaboutwhatwedon’tknow.Heofferssurprisinglysimpletricksfordealingwithblackswansandbenefitingfromthem.Elegant,startling,anduniversalinitsapplicationsTheBlackSwanwillchangethewayyoulookattheworld.Talebisavastlyentertainingwriter,withwit,irreverence,andunusualstoriestotell.Hehasapolymathiccommandofsubjectsrangingfromcognitivesciencetobusinesstoprobabilitytheory.TheBlackSwanisalandmarkbook–itselfablackswan.

作者简介

NassimNicholasTalebhasdevotedhislifetoimmersinghimselfinproblemsofluck,uncertainty,probability,andknowledge.Partliteraryessayist,partempiricist,partno-nonsensemathematicaltrader,heiscurrentlytakingabreakasDean’sProfessorintheSciencesofUncertaintyattheUniversityofMassachusettsatAmherst.Hislastbook,thebestsellerFooledbyRandomness,hasbeenpublishedinnineteenlanguages.TaleblivesmostlyinNewYork.

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